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Will Bitcoin (BTC) Price Stay Above $10,000 After Halving? S2F Model Creator Shares His Take


Plan B, the anonymous investment manager who created Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, is certain that the price of Bitcoin will stay about $10,000. After that, it will slowly climb to the pie-in-the-sky target of $100,000 that is expected to be reached by December 2021. 
S2F multiple should drop dramatically before the halving pump!!!!😞
Yes but the multiple / model error only drops because model value jumps to $100k at block 630,000 and btc price will not follow within 10 minutes. Btc price will likely stay at around $10k and then slowly rise to the $100k model value. So no worries about that.
See PlanB's other Tweets

It's about cointegration 

The S2F model attempts to predict the price of Bitcoin based on its supply cuts. While it does attract a lot of skepticism from those who believe that BTC's price moves are driven by demand, it has been verified and adopted by many quants
According to Plan B, the May halving will produce similar results to the previous two because of co-integration between the S2F and the price of the crypto king. 
He did caution investors that there was 'no guarantee' that Bitcoin would behave in a similar fashion years after 12 years, but the possibility of netting 10x returns is worth taking a bet. 
So unless 2021 is the very first year that price is not above the S2F model....
Yes no guarantee that S2F model will hold after 12 yrs. But the question that everybody should answer for himself is: do you really think chances of S2F failing are > 90%? Because even with 10% chance of succeeding it might be a great bet (10% x $100k). The odds are in our favor.
See PlanB's other Tweets

Options traders disagree

However, options traders are still skeptical of Bitcoin's ability to pull off another major rally after the upcoming halving. According to crypto research firm Skew, there a tiny four percent chance that the coin could reach a new high later this year. 
Probability of new highs post halving = 4%
Moreover, traders have priced in only an 11 percent chance that BTC might rally above its 2019 peak of roughly $14,000 after the halving. 



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