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Market rebound | Cryptocurrency regulation | New Cyber ​​Sanctions

Market dynamics

On the American and Russian markets - a sudden wildly blooming optimism.

In the Russian market, this is due to the weakening of geopolitical risks. Macron met with the presidents:

  • Russia
  • Ukraine

Now representatives of Great Britain have come to Russia. Dialogue on the Ukrainian issue is beginning to improve. The Russian market likes it. Tinkoff Bank jumped 12% today.

In the US market, only defensive industries, such as healthcare, are in the red.

The market is slowly starting to get used to the fact that we are waiting for a rate increase. But has the market adapted to all the Fed's possible rigidity? I'm afraid not. Strong movements may lie ahead of us. US inflation data is released on Thursday.

Will there be new sanctions?

Despite the fact that geopolitics in the Russian market is calming down, we have almost 100% guarantees that there will be some kind of sanctions. Two people with knowledge of the matter reported:

European and US regulators are advising banks to brace for the threat of Russian cyberattacks amid rising tensions with Ukraine as the region prepares for the financial fallout from the conflict.

All this is especially interesting in the context of the fact that yesterday the rating agency Fitch Ratings published data in which it was said:


Potential triggers for new anti-Russian sanctions could be not only military actions, but also Russian cyberattacks and interference in congressional elections. In the absence of conflict, more likely sanctions include a ban on U.S. investors from trading in sovereign debt on the secondary market, as well as additional sanctions against senior officials and government entities. Tough sanctions against Russia could have a negative impact on the sovereign rating and on the banking sector.

Hello to Sberbank, which everyone happily collected on the drawdown. Standard & Poor's Financial Services warned:

Sovereign debt sanctions could increase the cost of financing.

An interesting puzzle emerges. Western central banks expect cyberattacks and rating agencies say:

For these cyberattacks, Russia will definitely fly in.

Even regardless of whether cyberattacks actually happen, there will be sanctions.

Regulation of the crypto market

The government approved the concept of regulating the circulation of digital currencies. The concept will be integrated into the financial system and will ensure control over cash flows. With regard to the regulation of the crypto market, we are offered to divide investors into quals and non-quals, as in the stock market. Investors will be tested, and then set limits on transactions for unqualified investors. Theoretically, this is not so bad.

Investors will be protected through the licensing of cryptocurrency platforms, which will be required to have financial cushions for liquidity and capital adequacy. The organizer of the digital currency exchange system can be a bank with a universal license, which has the right to open and maintain bank accounts of individuals and legal entities. To monitor cryptocurrency transactions, the Transparent Blockchain service developed by Rosfinmonitoring can be used. The use of foreign services with similar functionality is impossible, because requests generated by users are stored there.

A crypto exchange, a digital currency exchange operator with universal rights, will necessarily work through a Russian legal entity. Exchanges and crypto exchangers will be subject to requirements for the size of the authorized capital. There will be a purchase and sale of digital currencies on foreign exchanges, but they will be subject to requirements for carrying out activities on the territory of the Russian Federation.

Everything happens, as with other areas that are regulated. Required:

  • having a daughter in Russia
  • technical integration by the system of the Russian organizer of the digital currency exchange system

The regulation currently being proposed is close to a ban.

JPMorgan Chase: fresh forecast for bitcoin

Bitcoin has been on the rise in recent days. Profitability for 20 days - almost 20%. Many people look at the crypto market and say: “Why do I need these OFZs and even these shares, if you can just buy bitcoin and ride volatility?”

JPMorgan Chase warns and says:

The fair value of bitcoin is $38,000.

This is more than 10% below the current price. JPMorgan Chase said:

The biggest challenge for bitcoin going forward is volatility and boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption.

The long-term goal of the bank is $150,000. This is the level at which the general market value of bitcoin would be equal to all the gold that is privately owned for investment purposes. JPMorgan Chase says:

The January correction in the crypto market is not exactly some kind of complete capitulation, but nevertheless, the trend to reduce positions is rather alarming.

Long-term forecast for bitcoin

We'll see.

In the United States will limit investment for officials

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is working to stop lawmakers and senior congressional officials from trading stocks. She wants to amend the Congressional Information Trade Stop Act of 2012. This direction of movement from Pelosi has been demanded for a long time, and representatives of both parties. Trump demanded action. At first, Pelosi was categorically against it, but then admitted:

If the participants want to do it, then fine.

At least 113 lawmakers disclosed stock deals for 2021. Either they themselves traded, or members of the family. In 2021, US legislators bought $180 million worth of shares and sold $175 million worth. The turnover was $355 million. Nancy Pelosi is also on the sidelines.

Turnover of transactions with shares of officials in 2021

With the Democrats coming to power, regulatory clouds slowly began to gather over the American market. This can lead to interesting consequences that we do not even immediately realize. But it looks like a trend. Regulation is getting tighter.

Markets are waiting for inflation in the US

On Thursday, we are waiting for data on inflation in the US, which may seriously affect the course of trading. The forecast for annual inflation in the US is 7.2%. The data could be the highest since 1982. If inflation turns out to be higher than forecast, then the markets are almost certain that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.5% in March. This is a big and drastic rate hike move. This will be the first increase of 50 basis points since 2000. Usually the Fed moves 1/4 point - 0.25%.

Now many are convinced that the Fed acted too slowly, lagging behind inflation. Now the Fed will have to raise rates sharply and quickly. This is a potential negative for financial markets and a potential positive for the dollar around the world.

Russia also released data on inflation. In January, annual inflation was fixed at 8.7%. This is a 6 year maximum. On Friday, February 11, a meeting of the Bank of Russia will be held, at which a sharp increase in rates is also expected. This is the time we live in.



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